Niš Fortress
Methodology
How we verified — and what we do not know
The goal is not to persuade but to let anyone check for themselves. So every step is described, and the limitations are stated as clearly as the findings.
Methods
What we did
- X posting times were computed from the ID and confirmed via the X syndication API (
created_at); the edit history (edit_tweet_ids) was also checked. - Instagram posting times were computed from the shortcode (media ID). The method was tested on known posts and independently confirmed by screen recording S-03.
- Article times were taken from the page metadata (
article:published_time,datePublished). - Quotes were checked verbatim in the source text; where transcripts differ, all versions are given.
- The filming point and camera direction of every video were set by hand on satellite imagery, using landmarks visible in the videos (lamp posts, signs, tower, bridge); the points were then grouped by place. The sightlines of all 18 videos intersect at one point on the southern rampart of the Fortress, within ±15 m — from different places they all film the same flames.
- Posting times cannot be shifted back later — explanation and a checking tool: Why posting times cannot be faked.
- Statutory texts were taken verbatim from paragraf.rs (consolidated texts), with the version indicated.
- Sunset and twilight times: sunrise-sunset.org for 43.3209° N, 21.8958° E.
- All sources were accessed on 9 Oct 2026.
Labels
What the statuses mean
- Verified Time or content confirmed directly from the platform or the page metadata.
- Derived Time computed from the post ID (formula on the “Post timestamps” page).
- Unknown The platform shows no verifiable time (e.g. Facebook).
Limitations
What this analysis cannot prove
- A posting time is not a recording time — it proves the video existed no later than then.
- We do not have the original phone files; the analysis is based on the published versions.
- Filming points were set by hand from landmarks (accurate to within a few metres).
- Facebook posting times were not established; Facebook allows backdating.
- For I-04 we only have Niš TV’s paraphrase, not a direct quote.
- The flares sentence in I-01 is transcribed differently (Alo / Južne vesti) until the full broadcast is checked.
- AI fabrication times are estimates derived from published data on the tools.
- The legal analysis is not legal advice.
Open questions
What is missing and who has it
| Missing | Held by | How to obtain |
|---|---|---|
| The exact minute the fire started | Fire and rescue unit (call log); authors of original videos | Freedom-of-information request; original files |
| The full TV Informer broadcast of 7 Oct | TV Informer; REM | Request to the broadcaster / REM |
| The interrupted Niš TV live broadcast of 5 Oct | Niš TV; REM | Request to the broadcaster / REM |
| The mayor’s Instagram Story (expired) | The author; Južne vesti (screenshot) | Request to the newsroom; prosecutor |
| Who ordered “Mediana” to work on 6 Oct | “Mediana” utility; City of Niš | Freedom-of-information request; prosecutor |
| How the scene was guarded overnight | Niš Police Department | Prosecutor |
| Finding on damage to the rampart | Niš Institute for the Protection of Cultural Monuments | Freedom-of-information request |
Sources
All sources
Evidence register
- S-01 @vlalaz — First published video, from across the Nišava · 5 Oct 2026, 19:30:02
https://x.com/vlalaz/status/2107161401974231179 - S-02 @podizanje_svesti — Video from the crowd on the Fortress Bridge · 5 Oct 2026, 19:32:02
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeHwKSjtjEj/ - S-03 @tamaratamara — Screen recording of reel S-02 — proof that S-02 existed · 5 Oct 2026, 19:39:25
https://x.com/tamaratamara/status/2107163764655341926 - S-04 @kreni.promeni.nis — Photo: “the fortress left in flames” · 5 Oct 2026, 19:45:22
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeHxr-QiUsG/ - S-05 @pressingonline — Distant view, reader-submitted video · 5 Oct 2026, 19:54:48
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeHyxC_oObx/ - S-06 @JelMilosevic — Photo (not a video) from the Fortress Bridge · 5 Oct 2026, 20:08:21
https://x.com/JelMilosevic/status/2107171045480276304 - S-07 @nishka_prica — Local account: “fire… quickly contained” · 5 Oct 2026, 20:21:39
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeH11nMR5ta/ - S-08 @mrcoslav — The longest video (56 seconds) · 5 Oct 2026, 20:23:55
https://x.com/mrcoslav/status/2107174963962622222 - S-09 @dr.dragan.milic — View across the Nišava from the embankment (position A) · 5 Oct 2026, 20:31:35
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DeH2-ZGNegU/ - S-10 @pressingonline — Firefighters extinguishing the fire on the rampart · 5 Oct 2026, 20:39:58
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeH37yqIihG/ - S-11 @djordjestankovicnis — Repost of video S-02 · 5 Oct 2026, 20:51:39
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeH5RZwoFDv/ - S-12 @juznevesti — Južne vesti: news card · 5 Oct 2026, 20:54:18
https://www.instagram.com/juznevesti/p/DeH5k2IG0NF/ - S-13 @juznevesti — Južne vesti and Insajder: reel · 5 Oct 2026, 20:59:16
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeH6JN-MsSl/ - S-14 @vidik_srbije — Northern part of the bridge: round tower on the left · 5 Oct 2026, 21:50:48
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DeIACnaRkWy/ - S-15 Složno protiv diktature — Facebook: “SNS set the Fortress on fire…” · 5 Oct 2026 · time unknown
https://www.facebook.com/sloznoprotivdiktature/videos/naprednjaci-zapalili-tvr%C4%91avu-na-skupu-u-ni%C5%A1u-05102026%EF%B8%8F-vlalaz-x/1884345696058109/ - S-16 UnS — Ujedinjeni narod Srbije — Facebook: “Ćaci set Niš Fortress on fire” · unknown
https://www.facebook.com/100069593771832/videos/%C4%87aci-zapalili-ni%C5%A1ku-tvr%C4%91avu-/1365940745747483/ - S-17 BBC News na srpskom — BBC News Serbian: “Fire on the walls of Niš Fortress during SNS rally” · unknown
https://www.facebook.com/BBCNewsnasrpskom/videos/po%C5%BEar-na-zidinama-ni%C5%A1ke-tvr%C4%91ave-tokom-sns-skupa/2148511026544004/ - S-18 @podizanje_svesti — Original in the phone gallery: “Monday · 19:26” · 8 Oct 2026, 22:53:48
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeP1ooytvc9/ - M-01 Informer.rs — Informer: the march and “spectacular fireworks” — no mention of the fire · 5 Oct 2026, 20:34
https://informer.rs/politika/vesti/1157615/nis-ujedinjena-srbija-gradjani-podrska - M-02 Južne vesti — Južne vesti: “lit flares, then set the Fortress rampart on fire” · 5 Oct 2026, 20:47
https://www.juznevesti.com/hronika/sns-u-nisu-palili-baklje-pa-zapalili-bedem-tvrdjave-video/ - M-03 Vreme — Vreme: “Fire broke out at Niš Fortress during SNS rally” · 5 Oct 2026, 20:59
https://vreme.com/vesti/tokom-skupa-sns-a-izbio-pozar-na-niskoj-tvrdjavi/ - M-04 nova.rs / Beta — nova.rs / Beta: Niš TV cut its live feed when extinguishing began · 5 Oct 2026, 21:13
https://nova.rs/vesti/politika/video-naprednjaci-bakljama-zapalili-nisku-tvrdjavu-tokom-predizbornog-skupa/ - M-05 N1 — N1: firefighters confirmed the fire · 5 Oct 2026, 21:17
https://n1info.rs/vesti/video-pozar-na-tvrdjavi-u-nisu-nakon-bakljade-pristalica-sns-a/ - M-06 021.rs — 021: “Fire at the Niš fortress broke out after the torch march” · 5 Oct 2026, 21:47
https://www.021.rs/info/srbija/457226/video-pozar-na-tvrdjavi-u-nisu-izbio-nakon-bakljade-pristalica-sns-a - M-07 Pravda.rs — Pravda: “lit flares, then set the Fortress on fire” · 5 Oct 2026, 22:30
https://pravda.rs/srbija/naprednjaci-na-skupu-u-nisu-palili-baklje-pa-zapalili-tvrdjavu-video-2026-10-05 - M-08 Index.hr — Index.hr (Croatia) reports the same evening · 5 Oct 2026, 22:47
https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/video-snsovci-palili-baklje-u-cast-vucica-pa-zapalili-nisku-tvrdjavu/2842330.aspx - M-09 Niš TV — Niš TV: “evening ended with spectacular fireworks” — no mention of the fire · 5 Oct 2026 · time unknown
https://nistv.rs/snazna-slika-iz-nisa-velika-setnja-podrske-listi-aleksandar-vucic-ujedinjena-srbija-vece-zavrseno-spektakularnim-vatrometom/ - P-01 Danas — Danas: “Mediana” cleaned before 7 a.m., before the investigation · 6 Oct 2026, 08:22
https://danas.rs/vesti/politika/krivicne-prijave-paljenje-niske-tvrdjave-sns-opozicija - P-02 N1 — N1: “Fortress burned last night, ploughed this morning” · 6 Oct 2026, 12:40
https://n1info.rs/vesti/tvrdjava-sinoc-gorela-jutros-preorana-posle-naprednjackog-pozara-u-nisu-prvo-cistili-pa-radili-uvidjaj/ - P-03 Južne vesti — Južne vesti: investigation 08:00–10:00 — burn marks remain · 6 Oct 2026, 12:47
https://www.juznevesti.com/hronika/policija-obavila-uvidjaj-na-tvrdjavi-garez-ostao-ali-nema-zvanicnih-odgovora/ - P-04 Mediareform — Prosecutor ordered police to guard the scene overnight · 6 Oct 2026, 15:42
https://mediareform.rs/posle-bakljade-sns-a-pozar-na-bedemu-tvrdave-tuzilastvo-reagovalo-vlast-i-policija-cute-opozicija-podnosi-prijave/ - P-05 Niš TV — Niš TV: “Mediana” works “in the Fortress” that same day · 6 Oct 2026, 11:19
https://nistv.rs/mediana-danas-na-vise-lokacija-u-nisu-uredjuju-trgove-parkove-tvrdjavu-i-cair/ - P-06 nova.rs / FoNet — nova.rs / FoNet: soot marks on the rampart · 6 Oct 2026, 18:01
https://nova.rs/vesti/hronika/policija-obavila-uvidjaj-na-niskoj-tvrdjavi-nakon-pozara-posle-sns-bakljade-ostali-tragovi-garezi-na-bedemu - P-07 Danas / Insajder — Niš prosecutor: qualified as causing general danger · 7 Oct 2026, 14:06
https://danas.rs/vesti/drustvo/niska-tvrdjava-pozar-tuzilastvo-krivicne-prijave - P-08 Beta — Beta: unanswered questions — was the Institute notified · 7 Oct 2026, 14:00
https://beta.rs/content/253435-pitanja-o-pozaru-na-bedemima-niske-tvrdave-tokom-skupa-sns-za-sada-bez-odgovora - P-09 N1 — N1: complaints announced over removal of evidence · 7 Oct 2026, 21:12
https://n1info.rs/vesti/nema-informacija-iz-istrage-o-paljenju-baklji-i-pozaru-na-niskoj-tvrdjavi-najavljene-i-prijave-zbog-uklanjanja-dokaza - P-10 021.rs — Kreni-Promeni: criminal complaint (Art. 278(3) with 278(1) CC) · 6 Oct 2026, 07:01
https://www.021.rs/info/srbija/457232/video-pokret-kreni-promeni-podnosi-krivicne-prijave-zbog-pozara-prilikom-sns-bakljade-na-niskoj-tvrdjavi - P-11 nova.rs — MP Stanković summoned by police on the prosecutor’s order · 6 Oct 2026, 11:12
https://nova.rs/vesti/politika/poslanik-djordje-stankovic-pozvan-na-saslusanje-nakon-prijave-o-plaljenju-niske-tvrdjave/ - P-12 TV Zona Plus — Even the “Fortress did not burn” article admits: “dry vegetation burned” · 6 Oct 2026, 16:22
https://tvzonaplus.rs/niska-tvrdjava-nije-izgorela-gorelo-suvo-rastinje-stete-nema/ - P-13 Južna Srbija Info — A “debunk” that confirms the fire and the firefighters · 7 Oct 2026, 12:45
https://www.juznasrbija.info/lat/vesti/niska-tvrdjava-nije-izgorela-drustvenim-mrezama-sire-se-neistinite-informacije.html - P-14 Beta — MP’s allegation: burned branches cut before the investigation · 6 Oct 2026, 14:05
https://beta.rs/content/253353-milosevic-ssp-za-paljenje-tvrdave-direktno-odgovorni-gradonacelnik-i-direktor-ukc-nis - P-15 021.rs — DS Niš asks the Higher Prosecutor to question the President “for obstructing the investigation” · 8 Oct 2026, 21:53
https://www.021.rs/info/srbija/457539/ds-vuciceva-laz-da-je-vestacka-inteligencija-zapalila-tvrdjavu-u-nisu - I-01 @nistv.rs — Vučić: “Well, that’s artificial intelligence” · 8 Oct 2026, 13:36:58
https://www.instagram.com/nistv.rs/reel/DeO16QlPRXQ/
+ Alo, 07.10.2026. 23:51 (N. Anđelković): https://www.alo.rs/izbori-2026/16989289/ljudi-poverovali-da-je-niska-tvrdjava-izgorela-vucic-pokazao-kako-vidi-rat-laznim-slikama.html
+ Južne vesti, 08.10.2026. 11:17 (M. Zirojević): https://www.juznevesti.com/politika/vucic-raspaljuje-pozar-na-tvrdjavi-blesavo-budalastine-gluposti-nije-tacno/
+ N1, 08.10.2026. 17:45: https://n1info.rs/vesti/aleksandar-vucic-niska-tvrdjava-pozar-vestacka-inteligencija/
+ Kurir, 7 Oct 2026 21:20 — interview announcement: https://www.kurir.rs/vesti/politika/10127137/vucic-gost-tv-informer-7-10
+ Informer TV, YouTube — candidate for the full broadcast (unconfirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iMp8H_zjdI - I-02 Južne vesti (snimak Story-ja) — Mayor: “The truth is there is no damage” — filmed next to the burned rampart · 7 Oct 2026, 13:46
https://www.juznevesti.com/politika/gradonacelnik-nisa-o-paljenju-tvrdjave-sve-je-zaboleo-skup-sns-a-pa-morali-nesto-da-smisle/
+ Rešetka, 07.10.2026. 17:26: https://resetka.rs/gradonacelnik-nisa-o-pozaru-na-tvrdjavi-istina-je-da-nema-stete-znam-da-moraju-nesto-da-smisle-poraz-boli/
+ Glas juga, 07.10.2026.: https://glasjuga.rs/pavlovic-nema-stete-na-tvrdjavi-moraju-nesto-da-smisle-poraz-boli-a-kada-izgubite-pruzite-ruku/ - I-03 Niš TV — Mayor to Niš TV: “a personal, lay assessment” · 7 Oct 2026, 21:10
https://nistv.rs/pavlovic-na-niskoj-tvrdjavi-nije-napravljena-steta-konacnu-ocenu-dace-zavod/ - I-04 @nistv.rs — Gašić: “everything was under control” (Niš TV paraphrase) · 7 Oct 2026, 22:02:05
https://www.instagram.com/nistv.rs/reel/DeNK6-dhZcG/ - I-05 @nistv.rs — Radulović: “it’s not the grass burning – it’s their ratings” · 8 Oct 2026, 14:04:47
https://www.instagram.com/nistv.rs/reel/DeO5GE9vVJ7/ - I-06 Alo — Alo: “there was no real fire” · 7 Oct 2026, 23:51
https://www.alo.rs/izbori-2026/16989289/ljudi-poverovali-da-je-niska-tvrdjava-izgorela-vucic-pokazao-kako-vidi-rat-laznim-slikama.html - I-07 Niš TV — Niš TV: “found everything in order the morning after” — after the clean-up · 6 Oct 2026, 14:10
https://nistv.rs/gori-tvrdjava-preplavilo-mreze-ekipa-nis-tv-a-jutro-posle-zatekla-sve-u-redu/ - I-08 Informer.rs — Informer.rs: written reports of the interview omit the Fortress segment · 7 Oct 2026, 20:41
https://informer.rs/politika/vesti/1158285/aleksandar-vucic-intervju-informer
+ Informer 1158323 (07.10. 21:59): https://informer.rs/politika/vesti/1158323/aleksandar-vucic-specijalna-operacija-informer-tv
+ Informer 1158333 (08.10. 06:45): https://informer.rs/politika/vesti/1158333/aleksandar-vucic-izbori-informer-tv
+ Informer 1158337 (07.10. 23:15): https://informer.rs/politika/vesti/1158337/aleksandar-vucic-informer-tv-kolegijum
Laws
- Constitution of the Republic of Serbia — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 98/2006 i 115/2021
- Criminal Code — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 85/2005 … 35/2019, 94/2024 i 63/2026
- Criminal Procedure Code — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 72/2011 … 62/2021 – odluka US
- Law on Liability of Legal Entities for Criminal Offences — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 97/2008
- Law on Political Parties — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 36/2009 i 61/2015 – odluka US
- Law on Electronic Media — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 92/2023 i 51/2025
- Law on Public Information and Media — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 92/2023 i 51/2025
- Law on Public Order and Peace — „Sl. glasnik RS“, br. 6/2016 i 24/2018
Post timestamps (technical sources)
- X Developer Platform — X IDs (Snowflake)
- Twitter Snowflake — README (41 time bits, 10 machine bits, 12 sequence bits)
- Twitter Snowflake — IdWorker.scala (twepoch = 1288834974657, server clock)
- X API — Create Post (no field for time/ID)
- X API — Edit Posts (every edit = new ID)
- Instagram Engineering — Sharding & IDs at Instagram
- Instagram Help — editing a post (caption, alt text)
- Facebook Help — changing a post’s date (backdating)
- Graph API — page/feed: backdated_time
- Bellingcat — TikTok timestamp
- ExifTool — editing dates inside a file
- sunrise-sunset.org API — Niš, 5 Oct 2026
AI models and research
- Google Veo 3.1
- Gemini Omni Flash (maj 2026.)
- OpenAI Sora 2
- Runway Aleph / Aleph 2.0
- Kling 3.0 / O1 Edit
- Luma Ray3 Modify / Ray 3.2
- ByteDance Seedance 2.5
- Wan 2.2 / VACE (otvoreni kod)
- https://arxiv.org/html/2412.07760v1
- https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.09038
- Chesney & Citron, „Deep Fakes: A Looming Challenge…“, California Law Review 107 (2019)
- Schiff, Schiff & Bueno, American Political Science Review 2024 — „liar’s dividend“
- NPR (2023): people are trying to claim real videos are deepfakes
- Washington Post test: platforms do not keep C2PA labels
- Hany Farid (UC Berkeley): how to spot fake viral videos
Change log
Site changes
- 9 Oct 2026 — first version: 50 exhibits, legal analysis, AI analysis, Serbian and English versions.